Hezbollah – A Dilemma of life and death
Everything that Iran has planned for Hezbollah is reaching a peek point. The war in the South of Israel, the US fleet closing in from both sides, the promises made to Hamas and PIJ in accordance with the big plan of Iran. This is money time, what they trained for, what they always talked about – it’s now! Yet Nasrallah has not gone “all-in”, shows signs of concern, considering all sides of a dilemma of life and death.
The party of Allah, some call it “the resistance” was founded almost forty years ago. Naturally, a Shiite para-military organization, has the support of Iran, almost from the first day. For many years Hezbollah fought the ideological nemesis, the Amal movement, not only for leadership of the Lebanese Shia, but also for military authority in the south of Lebanon.
Over the years, the leadership of the resistance leaned on the big brother, Iran. Many capabilities, unbelievable volume of arms and ammunition, instructive courses – anything they needed, they got. The mission was a simple one and had two pillars: First and foremost, engaging of the IDF in case of any military confrontation with Iran. Secondly, to preserve the confrontation on the Zionist frontline as a justification for their indispensability.
All along, one could see a diversion of ranks in the organization. One part wanted to maintain the Iranian guideline without any detours, and the other wanted to build character. Nasrallah, much like his mentor Khamenei, allowed both sides to continue in their efforts, without taking sides. The only time you could see Nasrallah acting out, was whenever anyone, no matter how high ranking, put his own ambition above the interest of the organization.
With that in mind, the conservatives showed a more aggressive attitude, taking their role sometimes even more seriously than intended by Iran. The progressive, on the other hand, progressed. They made it a point that representatives to the parliament were of a more political nature, they build up a production and trade network, income sources and even intelligence and cyber capabilities. Apparently, these would make Hezbollah more independent of Iran, but never was this a set goal. Again, Nasrallah did not intervene.
In a short period of time, Hezbollah became the expert when it comes to Israel. They had sources, they had constant visual, they have infiltrated blogs and groups, hands on. Never-the-less, Hezbollah were met with disbelief and even disrespect. The Iranian side interpreted their input as nervousness, weakness and even unwillingness by Hezbollah to do their part. In the end Iran views Hezbollah as servants, who should be glad that the master is willing to acknowledge their existence.
These days the two parts of Hezbollah clash again, but this time it is a matter of life and death, to the organization, to the Shiites in the south of Lebanon and possibly for the unity of a Lebanese nation as we know it. The conservatives, led by Hashem Safieddine, push for direct and full intervention in the war between the Zionists and Hamas. He doesn’t care if that pushes them back to 2006, if Hezbollah will be used and abandoned by Iran, or even if Lebanon disintegrates after taking a devastating military blow.
The other side, the more progressive and maybe pragmatic group, led by some politicians, while in the background you will find Naim Qassem, who may show resolve, but believes that Hezbollah not only knows better, but can assess the situation and the given scenarios more proficiently. They think, that the current situation is completely misunderstood by Tehran. Either that, or that Khamenei wants Hezbollah to draw fire from the US and the Zionist and by this to harm their reputation, gaining world support as a victim, Arab support as the savior who stood up for Palestine, without even losing one Iranian soldier. All the Iranian forces arriving go to the Syrian border and stay several kilometers away from the line of fire.
This time Nasrallah will have to take action. This time he will not be able to rely on his beloved mentor Khamenei, because he is a side in that. This is a dilemma of life and death for the organization, will they want to go down as heroes or stand fast and become more independent. If they do, what will Iran’s reaction to that be. Will they abandon Hezbollah for insubordination? Hardly, as Iran is heavily invested in Hezbollah and has little alternative, if at all.