What is the chance of a terrorist attack during World Cup in Russia?
Pro-ISIS sympathizers continue to threaten the next football world championships, which will be held in Russia (June 14 – July 15). To date, the official ISIS has never mentioned in its public posts about the world cup in Russia, although the multinational nature of the event makes it a symbolic and unanimously acceptable target for terrorists.
Threats and greater involvement of sympathizers are not surprising at all; just think of the Rio Olympics in 2016. Two years ago, pro-ISIS propaganda was spread on social media to attract the sympathizers, and for the first time, it was translated into Portuguese. The same strategy adopted for other Olympic events such as Sochi and Beijing. For about three weeks, threats to world championships have been translated into Russian.
It should be noted that the ISIS message has the authority to trigger “detachments” for performing planned and large-scale attacks. The pro-ISIS messages (for which the organization takes responsibility for some strategic reasons) are aimed at the soldiers of the caliphate, those who have only been inspired without ever having had direct contact with the central nucleus of the organization.
In 2014 al-Qaeda suggested looking for specific occasions such as electoral campaigns, charity parties, sporting events, and concerts to carry out attacks. For many times, ISIS has referred in its public posts to the world cup in Russia as a target to be hit. Football fields have already been successfully attacked by the Islamic State before.
Terrorism aims to undermine the classical patterns, modifying and shaping the usual status quo, known by the society. From a cultural point of view, the stadiums represent the temples of sports par excellence. The jihadists regard the stadium as a church for the role it plays in the life of kafir (ISIS followers believe they are observing Islam in its most effective form). The sport fascinates people, distracts them from the tragedy of their lives, makes them experience antipodal feelings. Sport is fun, it is a family fun time. So the facility that hosts the sports game becomes a battle theater.
The stadium strategy (currently located in Europe) has already proved to be meaningful and fits into a tactic that aims at dispersing forces maximizing fear among the masses. The stadiums host tens of thousands of people: some facilities are able to contain 90 thousand fans. Obviously, they are suitable not for all the attacks. Unlike the subway, attacking a stadium with gas would not make sense because it provides an optimal condition for air circulation. The stadium has a determining factor in itself: it hosts a crowd that could become chaotic in a very short time. For example, if one of the Paris bombers had blown a bomb close to a gate full of fans, the consequences would have been far more tragic. The crowd waiting on the stadium (in front of the whole world), would have turned into a disruptive and chaotic force in case of explosions. And considering the tightened control that would theoretically prevent undermining the foundations of a stadium, deflagrating a bomb in front of a crowded entrance still remains the best tactical option. Finally, the stadium has a special feature, unique in its kind: live television. The social networks allow to reach millions of people, but this range is not comparable to a live broadcast of a football match, perhaps second to an American football game.
Source: 112 International
